Ryan Flournoy receiving yards projection vs the line

DAL · WR · #19

Next game at IND · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

40.5StatIQ projection · receiving yards

35.5Line · consensus

+5.0Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	40.5	35.5	+5.0
Rush + Rec Yards	40.5	No line yet	–
Receptions	3.5	3.5	0.0

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

42.8Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 35.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 8

Oct 18

Oct 26

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs ARI	38	41	3
Oct 26, 2026at PHI	70	70	4
Oct 18, 2026at GB	40	40	7
Oct 8, 2026vs TB	90	90	3
Oct 4, 2026at HOU	37	37	4
Sep 27, 2026vs BAL	22	22	2
Sep 20, 2026vs WSH	23	23	5
Sep 13, 2026at NYG	22	22	2
Jan 4, 2026at NYG	68	68	5
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC	18	18	2
Average · last 10 games	42.8	43.1	3.7

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Ryan Flournoy’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Ryan Flournoy has averaged 55 yards over his last 5 games and 42.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Ryan Flournoy’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+5.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Ryan Flournoy’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs IND

Opponent: IND
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: IND allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 168.3 yards/game · 3rd of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Ryan Flournoy

Receiving Yards · line 35.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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