Zach Charbonnet rush + rec yards projection vs the line
SEA · RB · #26
Next game vs ARI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 28.9 yards · NFL rush + rec yards model · 139 graded projections · Updated Nov 5
Compare prices · 4 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush + Rec Yards | 41.4 | 51.5 | −10.1 |
| Rushing Yards | 39.7 | 39.5 | +0.2 |
| Receiving Yards | 12.1 | 7.5 | +4.6 |
| Receptions | 1.8 | 1.5 | +0.3 |
Recent rush + rec yards
61.6Average rush + rec yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 51.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 2 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | RUSH+REC | RUSH YDS | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026vs CHI | 29 | 23 | 6 | 3 |
| Jan 3, 2026at SF | 97 | 74 | 23 | 3 |
| Dec 28, 2025at CAR | 122 | 110 | 12 | 2 |
| Dec 18, 2025vs LAR | 54 | 32 | 22 | 4 |
| Dec 14, 2025vs IND | 31 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 7, 2025at ATL | 66 | 46 | 20 | 2 |
| Nov 30, 2025vs MIN | 52 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 23, 2025at TEN | 35 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 16, 2025at LAR | 47 | 37 | 10 | 2 |
| Nov 9, 2025vs ARI | 83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| Average · last 10 games | 61.6 | 52.3 | 9.3 | 1.6 |
Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL rush + rec yards model · 139 graded projections
28.9 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Zach Charbonnet has averaged 66.6 yards over his last 5 games, 29 yards per game this season (2026), and 63.5 yards across 2 games against ARI; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Zach Charbonnet’s rush + rec yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−10.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our rush + rec yards projection and the actual result, over 139 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Zach Charbonnet’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- ARI
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- ARI allowed the 3rd-most scrimmage yards to RBs in 2025 147.5 yards/game · 3rd of 32
- Against ARI
- 63.5 yards a game 2 previous meetings · small sample
Compare prices
Rush + Rec Yards · line 51.5.
4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 5, 6:45 PM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Zach Charbonnet, answered here:
Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.
Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.