AJ Barner receiving yards projection vs the line
SEA · TE · #88
Next game vs ARI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 5 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 30.6 | 24.5 | +6.1 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 32.5 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 3.1 | 2.5 | +0.6 |
Recent receiving yards
26.0Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 24.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 2 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026vs CHI | 23 | 23 | 2 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs KC | 42 | 46 | 4 |
| Oct 15, 2026at DEN | 16 | 16 | 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs SF | 20 | 20 | 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs LAC | 12 | 12 | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026at WSH | 69 | 69 | 5 |
| Sep 20, 2026at ARI | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026vs NE | 13 | 13 | 2 |
| Jan 3, 2026at SF | 14 | 14 | 2 |
| Dec 28, 2025at CAR | 43 | 43 | 3 |
| Average · last 10 games | 26 | 26.5 | 2.6 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, AJ Barner has averaged 22.6 yards over his last 5 games, 25.4 yards per game this season (2026), and 13.3 yards across 3 games against ARI; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for AJ Barner’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+6.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- AJ Barner’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- ARI
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- ARI allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 68.6 yards/game · 3rd of 32
- Against ARI
- 13.3 yards a game 3 previous meetings
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 24.5.
5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about AJ Barner, answered here:
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