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Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 223.1 | No line yet | – |
| Passing Touchdowns | 1.6 | No line yet | – |
Recent passing yards
209.3Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)
Current through Nov 2
| Game | PASS YDS | PASS TD |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026vs CHI | 188 | 2 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs KC | 257 | 1 |
| Oct 15, 2026at DEN | 278 | 0 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs SF | 195 | 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs LAC | 168 | 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026at WSH | 379 | 4 |
| Sep 9, 2026vs NE | 13 | 0 |
| Jan 3, 2026at SF | 198 | 0 |
| Dec 28, 2025at CAR | 147 | 1 |
| Dec 18, 2025vs LAR | 270 | 2 |
| Average · last 10 games | 209.3 | 1.3 |
PASS TD: Early projection · no line posted yet
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, Sam Darnold has averaged 217.2 yards over his last 5 games, 211.1 yards per game this season (2026), and 210 yards across 2 games against ARI; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Sam Darnold’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- Sam Darnold’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- ARI
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- ARI allowed the 9th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 242.8 yards/game · 9th of 32
- Against ARI
- 210 yards a game 2 previous meetings · small sample
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Sam Darnold, answered here:
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