Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards projection vs the line
SEA · WR · #11
Next game vs ARI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 3 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 85.4 | 93.5 | −8.1 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 85.8 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 7.2 | 7.5 | −0.3 |
Recent receiving yards
114.1Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 93.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 2 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026vs CHI | 118 | 118 | 6 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs KC | 150 | 163 | 9 |
| Oct 15, 2026at DEN | 134 | 134 | 12 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs SF | 102 | 118 | 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs LAC | 76 | 76 | 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026at WSH | 128 | 128 | 10 |
| Sep 20, 2026at ARI | 155 | 155 | 9 |
| Sep 9, 2026vs NE | 122 | 122 | 8 |
| Jan 3, 2026at SF | 84 | 84 | 6 |
| Dec 28, 2025at CAR | 72 | 72 | 9 |
| Average · last 10 games | 114.1 | 117 | 7.9 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 116 yards over his last 5 games, 123.1 yards per game this season (2026), and 109 yards across 3 games against ARI; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−8.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- ARI
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- ARI allowed the 16th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 137.1 yards/game · 16th of 32
- Against ARI
- 109 yards a game 3 previous meetings
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 93.5.
3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Jaxon Smith-Njigba, answered here:
Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.
Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.