Tee Higgins receiving yards projection vs the line

CIN · WR · #5

Next game Opponent: ATL · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

72.1StatIQ projection · receiving yards

77.5Line · consensus

−5.4Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	72.1	77.5	−5.4
Rush + Rec Yards	77.1	No line yet	–
Receptions	5.3	5.5	−0.2

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

90.5Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 77.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

157

Oct 4

Oct 11

148

Oct 25

155

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs TEN	155	155	10
Oct 25, 2026at BAL	148	148	6
Oct 11, 2026at MIA	22	22	2
Oct 4, 2026vs JAX	157	157	11
Sep 27, 2026at PIT	90	90	6
Sep 20, 2026at HOU	95	95	5
Sep 13, 2026vs TB	59	59	3
Jan 4, 2026vs CLE	67	67	6
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI	59	59	4
Dec 21, 2025at MIA	53	53	3
Average · last 10 games	90.5	90.5	5.6

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Tee Higgins’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Tee Higgins has averaged 114.4 yards over his last 5 games and 103.7 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Tee Higgins’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−5.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Tee Higgins’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: ATL · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: ATL allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 143.4 yards/game · 14th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Tee Higgins

Receiving Yards · line 77.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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