Drew Sample receiving yards projection vs the line

CIN · TE · #89

Next game Opponent: ATL · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

13.7StatIQ projection · receiving yards

4.5Line · consensus

+9.2Gap

Compare

Save this research

Free account. You come back to this page.

Follows are saved on this device.

Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	13.7	4.5	+9.2
Receptions	1.6	1.5	+0.1

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

10.4Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 4.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs TEN	0	0
Oct 25, 2026at BAL	24	2
Oct 11, 2026at MIA	5	1
Oct 4, 2026vs JAX	0	0
Sep 27, 2026at PIT	0	1
Sep 20, 2026at HOU	0	0
Sep 13, 2026vs TB	19	3
Jan 4, 2026vs CLE	17	3
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI	8	1
Dec 21, 2025at MIA	31	2
Average · last 10 games	10.4	1.3

Stats and game log: receptions

Drew Sample’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Drew Sample has averaged 5.8 yards over his last 5 games and 6.9 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Nov 1, 2026): 13 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Drew Sample’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+9.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Drew Sample’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: ATL · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: ATL allowed the 21st-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 48 yards/game · 21st of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Drew Sample

Receiving Yards · line 4.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −118 · Under −109.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

Ask Explorer about Drew Sample

Questions to ask Explorer about Drew Sample, answered here:

Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.

Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.

Create a free account