Chase Brown rushing yards projection vs the line

CIN · RB · #30

Next game Opponent: ATL · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

56.1StatIQ projection · rushing yards

50.5Line · consensus

+5.6Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	56.1	50.5	+5.7
Receiving Yards	28.6	22.5	+6.1
Rush + Rec Yards	94.2	77.5	+16.6
Receptions	4.6	3.5	+1.1

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

57.9Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 50.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

101

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs TEN	55	46	101	8
Oct 25, 2026at BAL	39	19	58	4
Oct 11, 2026at MIA	39	21	60	3
Oct 4, 2026vs JAX	10	71	81	11
Sep 27, 2026at PIT	61	8	69	2
Sep 20, 2026at HOU	80	2	82	3
Sep 13, 2026vs TB	56	22	78	5
Jan 4, 2026vs CLE	72	18	90	4
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI	101	40	141	3
Dec 21, 2025at MIA	66	43	109	4
Average · last 10 games	57.9	29	86.9	4.7

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Chase Brown’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Chase Brown has averaged 40.8 yards over his last 5 games and 48.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Chase Brown’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+5.7 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Chase Brown’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: ATL · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: ATL allowed the 13th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 99.8 yards/game · 13th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Chase Brown

Rushing Yards · line 50.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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