Puka Nacua receiving yards projection vs the line

LA · WR · #12

Next game at WAS · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

94.0StatIQ projection · receiving yards

93.5Line · consensus

+0.5Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	94.0	93.5	+0.5
Rush + Rec Yards	103.7	No line yet	–
Receptions	7.1	8.5	−1.4

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

109.4Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 93.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

181

Dec 14

225

Dec 18

Dec 29

Jan 4

Sep 10

125

Oct 4

138

Oct 12

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs LAC	80	80	11
Oct 25, 2026at LV	68	78	8
Oct 18, 2026vs ARI	80	80	6
Oct 12, 2026vs BUF	138	147	17
Oct 4, 2026at PHI	125	127	9
Sep 10, 2026vs SF	74	74	5
Jan 4, 2026vs ARI	76	100	10
Dec 29, 2025at ATL	47	47	5
Dec 18, 2025at SEA	225	225	12
Dec 14, 2025vs DET	181	189	9
Average · last 10 games	109.4	114.7	9.2

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Puka Nacua’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Puka Nacua has averaged 98.2 yards over his last 5 games and 94.2 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Puka Nacua’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+0.5 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Puka Nacua’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of LA vs WAS

Opponent: WAS
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: WAS allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 162.7 yards/game · 6th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Puka Nacua

Receiving Yards · line 93.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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