Matthew Stafford passing yards projection vs the line

LA · QB · #9

Next game at WAS · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

221.6StatIQ projection · passing yards

249.5Line · consensus

−27.9Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	221.6	249.5	−27.9
Passing Touchdowns	1.5	1.5	0.0

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

267.4Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 249.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

269

Dec 29

259

Jan 4

155

Sep 10

327

Sep 21

390

Sep 27

317

Oct 4

383

Oct 12

222

Oct 18

195

Oct 25

157

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026vs LAC	157	1
Oct 25, 2026at LV	195	3
Oct 18, 2026vs ARI	222	2
Oct 12, 2026vs BUF	383	3
Oct 4, 2026at PHI	317	0
Sep 27, 2026at DEN	390	2
Sep 21, 2026vs NYG	327	4
Sep 10, 2026vs SF	155	0
Jan 4, 2026vs ARI	259	4
Dec 29, 2025at ATL	269	2
Average · last 10 games	267.4	2.1

Matthew Stafford’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Matthew Stafford has averaged 254.8 yards over his last 5 games and 268.3 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Matthew Stafford’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−27.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Matthew Stafford’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of LA vs WAS

Opponent: WAS
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: WAS allowed the 5th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 257.1 yards/game · 5th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Matthew Stafford

Passing Yards · line 249.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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