Luther Burden III receiving yards projection vs the line

CHI · WR · #10

Next game vs TB · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

64.7StatIQ projection · receiving yards

65.5Line · consensus

−0.8Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	64.7	65.5	−0.8
Rush + Rec Yards	67.0	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.9	5.5	−0.6

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

72.0Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 65.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

138

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 28

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

130

Oct 22

Nov 2

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 2 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 2, 2026at SEA	56	56	7
Oct 22, 2026vs NE	130	137	4
Oct 18, 2026at ATL	95	95	8
Oct 11, 2026at GB	47	49	4
Oct 4, 2026vs NYJ	63	74	4
Sep 28, 2026vs PHI	61	68	7
Sep 20, 2026vs MIN	32	32	3
Sep 13, 2026at CAR	63	65	5
Jan 4, 2026vs DET	35	45	3
Dec 28, 2025at SF	138	138	8
Average · last 10 games	72	75.9	5.3

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Luther Burden III’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Luther Burden III has averaged 78.2 yards over his last 5 games and 68.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Luther Burden III’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−0.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Luther Burden III’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CHI vs TB

Opponent: TB
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: TB allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 147.6 yards/game · 10th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Luther Burden III

Receiving Yards · line 65.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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