D'Andre Swift rushing yards projection vs the line

CHI · RB · #4

Next game vs TB · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

61.4StatIQ projection · rushing yards

66.5Line · consensus

−5.1Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	61.4	66.5	−5.1
Receiving Yards	21.0	21.5	−0.5
Rush + Rec Yards	90.5	93.5	−3.0
Receptions	2.7	2.5	+0.2

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

63.9Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 66.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 4

124

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 28

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 22

Nov 2

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 2 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 2, 2026at SEA	69	10	79	2
Oct 22, 2026vs NE	78	12	90	4
Oct 18, 2026at ATL	44	26	70	4
Oct 11, 2026at GB	43	30	73	4
Oct 4, 2026vs NYJ	58	16	74	2
Sep 28, 2026vs PHI	84	4	88	2
Sep 20, 2026vs MIN	45	54	99	5
Sep 13, 2026at CAR	124	10	134	1
Jan 4, 2026vs DET	40	8	48	1
Dec 28, 2025at SF	54	25	79	2
Average · last 10 games	63.9	19.5	83.4	2.7

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

D'Andre Swift’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, D'Andre Swift has averaged 58.4 yards over his last 5 games and 68.1 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for D'Andre Swift’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−5.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: D'Andre Swift’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CHI vs TB

Opponent: TB
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: TB allowed the 27th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 78.8 yards/game · 27th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · D'Andre Swift

Rushing Yards · line 66.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −117 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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