Colston Loveland receiving yards projection vs the line
CHI · TE · #84
Next game vs TB · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 6 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 52.5 | 51.5 | +1.1 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 50.1 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 4.8 | 5.5 | −0.8 |
Recent receiving yards
49.4Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 51.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 2 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026at SEA | 65 | 65 | 7 |
| Oct 22, 2026vs NE | 69 | 69 | 7 |
| Oct 18, 2026at ATL | 65 | 65 | 6 |
| Oct 11, 2026at GB | 19 | 19 | 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs NYJ | 57 | 57 | 6 |
| Sep 28, 2026vs PHI | 31 | 31 | 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs MIN | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026at CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs DET | 91 | 91 | 10 |
| Dec 28, 2025at SF | 94 | 94 | 6 |
| Average · last 10 games | 49.4 | 49.4 | 4.9 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Colston Loveland has averaged 55 yards over his last 5 games and 38.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Colston Loveland’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+1.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Colston Loveland’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- TB
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- TB allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 57 yards/game · 12th of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 51.5.
6 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −116 · Under −114.
Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Colston Loveland, answered here:
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