Kenny Gainwell rushing yards projection vs the line

TB · RB · #1

Next game at CHI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

48.8StatIQ projection · rushing yards

21.5Line · consensus

+27.3Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	48.8	21.5	+27.3
Rush + Rec Yards	56.0	36.5	+19.5

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

32.5Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 21.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

-4

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 8

Oct 18

Oct 25

140

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	RUSH+REC
Nov 1, 2026vs ATL	140	140
Oct 25, 2026at CAR	88	88
Oct 18, 2026vs PIT	17	24
Oct 8, 2026at DAL	18	28
Oct 4, 2026vs GB	5	27
Sep 27, 2026vs MIN	-4	10
Sep 20, 2026vs CLE	10	15
Sep 13, 2026at CIN	15	18
Jan 4, 2026vs BAL	10	74
Dec 28, 2025at CLE	26	38
Average · last 10 games	32.5	46.2

Kenny Gainwell’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Kenny Gainwell has averaged 53.6 yards over his last 5 games, 36.1 yards per game this season (2026), and 92 yards across 1 game against CHI; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Kenny Gainwell’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+27.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Kenny Gainwell’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CHI vs TB

Opponent: CHI
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CHI allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 104.2 yards/game · 10th of 32
Against CHI: 92 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Kenny Gainwell

Rushing Yards · line 21.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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