Emeka Egbuka receiving yards projection vs the line

TB · WR · #2

Next game at CHI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

45.1StatIQ projection · receiving yards

51.5Line · consensus

−6.4Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	45.1	51.5	−6.4
Rush + Rec Yards	46.7	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.3	3.5	+0.8

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

37.2Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 51.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 11

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 3

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 8

Oct 18

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 18 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Oct 18, 2026vs PIT	48	48	7
Oct 8, 2026at DAL	38	52	6
Oct 4, 2026vs GB	13	13	2
Sep 27, 2026vs MIN	62	62	5
Sep 20, 2026vs CLE	16	13	3
Sep 13, 2026at CIN	63	63	5
Jan 3, 2026vs CAR	8	8	1
Dec 28, 2025at MIA	20	20	3
Dec 21, 2025at CAR	40	40	1
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL	64	64	4
Average · last 10 games	37.2	38.3	3.7

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Emeka Egbuka’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Emeka Egbuka has averaged 35.4 yards over his last 5 games and 40 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Emeka Egbuka’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−6.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Emeka Egbuka’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CHI vs TB

Opponent: CHI
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CHI allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 160.1 yards/game · 7th of 32

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Receiving Yards · Emeka Egbuka

Receiving Yards · line 51.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.

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