Bucky Irving rushing yards projection vs the line

TB · RB · #7

Next game at CHI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

72.0StatIQ projection · rushing yards

64.5Line · consensus

+7.5Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	72.0	64.5	+7.5
Rush + Rec Yards	95.9	83.5	+12.4

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

83.2Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 64.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 3

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

165

Oct 8

Oct 18

106

Oct 25

170

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	RUSH+REC
Nov 1, 2026vs ATL	170	170
Oct 25, 2026at CAR	106	110
Oct 18, 2026vs PIT	46	49
Oct 8, 2026at DAL	165	175
Oct 4, 2026vs GB	61	61
Sep 27, 2026vs MIN	46	58
Sep 20, 2026vs CLE	89	90
Sep 13, 2026at CIN	45	93
Jan 3, 2026vs CAR	85	98
Dec 28, 2025at MIA	19	33
Average · last 10 games	83.2	93.7

Bucky Irving’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Bucky Irving has averaged 109.6 yards over his last 5 games and 91 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Bucky Irving’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+7.5 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Bucky Irving’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CHI vs TB

Opponent: CHI
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CHI allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 104.2 yards/game · 10th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Bucky Irving

Rushing Yards · line 64.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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