Keaton Mitchell rushing yards projection vs the line
LAC · RB · #34
Next game vs HOU · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 3 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 20.6 | 13.5 | +7.0 |
| Receiving Yards | 13.2 | No line yet | – |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 30.7 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 2.2 | No line yet | – |
Recent rushing yards
19.1Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 13.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | RUSH YDS | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at LAR | 6 | 17 | 23 | 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026at KC | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs DEN | 11 | 18 | 29 | 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026at SEA | 39 | 24 | 63 | 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026at BUF | 52 | -5 | 47 | 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs LV | 24 | 15 | 39 | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs ARI | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| Jan 4, 2026at PIT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dec 27, 2025at GB | 31 | 7 | 38 | 2 |
| Dec 21, 2025vs NE | 13 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| Average · last 10 games | 19.1 | 7.6 | 26.7 | 1.7 |
REC YDS, RUSH+REC, REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections
26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
90 of 157 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Keaton Mitchell has averaged 22.4 yards over his last 5 games, 20.7 yards per game this season (2026), and 8 yards across 1 game against HOU; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Keaton Mitchell’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+7.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Keaton Mitchell’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- HOU
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- HOU allowed the 29th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 73.4 yards/game · 29th of 32
- Against HOU
- 8 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample
Compare prices
Rushing Yards · line 13.5.
3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −112 · Under −120.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Keaton Mitchell, answered here:
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