Ladd McConkey receiving yards projection vs the line

LAC · WR · #15

Next game vs HOU · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

38.6StatIQ projection · receiving yards

50.5Line · consensus

−11.9Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	38.6	50.5	−11.9
Receptions	2.7	3.5	−0.8

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

39.2Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 50.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 8

Dec 14

Dec 21

Dec 27

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 18

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	REC
Nov 1, 2026at LAR	86	4
Oct 18, 2026at KC	17	1
Oct 4, 2026at SEA	0	0
Sep 27, 2026at BUF	66	4
Sep 20, 2026vs LV	35	3
Sep 13, 2026vs ARI	82	5
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU	31	1
Dec 21, 2025at DAL	43	4
Dec 14, 2025at KC	20	2
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI	12	1
Average · last 10 games	39.2	2.5

Stats and game log: receptions

Ladd McConkey’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Ladd McConkey has averaged 40.8 yards over his last 5 games, 47.7 yards per game this season (2026), and 31 yards across 1 game against HOU; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Ladd McConkey’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−11.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Ladd McConkey’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of HOU vs LAC

Opponent: HOU
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: HOU allowed the 23rd-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 127.2 yards/game · 23rd of 32
Against HOU: 31 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Ladd McConkey

Receiving Yards · line 50.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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