KC Concepcion receiving yards projection vs the line

CLE · WR · #1

Next game at NO · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

43.0StatIQ projection · receiving yards

45.5Line · consensus

−2.5Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	43.0	45.5	−2.5
Rush + Rec Yards	50.4	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.1	4.5	−0.4

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

44.0Average receiving yards, last 8 (8 games)Over 45.5 in 2 of 8 · past results, not odds

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 1

Oct 11

Oct 18

129

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games. Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 8 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at PIT	37	37	3
Oct 25, 2026at TEN	129	152	8
Oct 18, 2026vs BAL	37	39	4
Oct 11, 2026at NYJ	5	5	1
Oct 1, 2026vs PIT	64	64	5
Sep 27, 2026vs CAR	9	9	2
Sep 20, 2026at TB	28	22	6
Sep 13, 2026at JAX	43	58	4
Average · last 8 games	44	48.3	4.1

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

KC Concepcion’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, KC Concepcion has averaged 54.4 yards over his last 5 games and 44 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for KC Concepcion’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−2.5 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: KC Concepcion’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CLE vs NO

Opponent: NO
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NO allowed the 26th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 121.5 yards/game · 26th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · KC Concepcion

Receiving Yards · line 45.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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