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Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 20.5 | No line yet | – |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 23.6 | No line yet | – |
Recent rushing yards
27.1Average rushing yards, last 8 (8 games)
Current through Nov 1
| Game | RUSH YDS | RUSH+REC |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at PIT | 2 | 2 |
| Oct 25, 2026at TEN | 19 | 19 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs BAL | 29 | 29 |
| Oct 11, 2026at NYJ | 40 | 40 |
| Oct 1, 2026vs PIT | 22 | 22 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs CAR | 45 | 45 |
| Sep 20, 2026at TB | 22 | 22 |
| Sep 13, 2026at JAX | 38 | 38 |
| Average · last 8 games | 27.1 | 27.1 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: rushing yards
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, Deshaun Watson has averaged 22.4 yards over his last 5 games and 27.1 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Deshaun Watson’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- Deshaun Watson’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- NO
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- NO allowed the 19th-most rushing yards to QBs in 2025 16.8 yards/game · 19th of 32
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Deshaun Watson, answered here:
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