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Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 65.5 | No line yet | – |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 65.2 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 4.8 | No line yet | – |
Recent receiving yards
57.3Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)
Current through Nov 1
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at DET | 33 | 33 | 5 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs IND | 44 | 44 | 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026at NO | 79 | 68 | 6 |
| Sep 27, 2026at TB | 32 | 32 | 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026at CHI | 55 | 55 | 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs GB | 92 | 92 | 8 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs GB | 101 | 104 | 8 |
| Dec 25, 2025vs DET | 30 | 30 | 4 |
| Dec 21, 2025at NYG | 85 | 85 | 6 |
| Dec 14, 2025at DAL | 22 | 22 | 2 |
| Average · last 10 games | 57.3 | 56.5 | 4.8 |
RUSH+REC, REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, Justin Jefferson has averaged 48.6 yards over his last 5 games and 55.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Nov 1, 2026): 37.6 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- Justin Jefferson’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- BUF
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- BUF allowed the 29th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 115.6 yards/game · 29th of 32
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Justin Jefferson, answered here:
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