More
Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 55.1 | No line yet | – |
| Receiving Yards | 16.1 | No line yet | – |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 69.1 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 2.4 | No line yet | – |
Recent rushing yards
63.0Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)
Current through Nov 1
| Game | RUSH YDS | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at DET | 22 | 18 | 40 | 2 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs IND | 26 | 0 | 26 | 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026at NO | 113 | 4 | 117 | 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs MIA | 94 | 34 | 128 | 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026at TB | 58 | 34 | 92 | 5 |
| Sep 20, 2026at CHI | 105 | 0 | 105 | 0 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs GB | 40 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
| Dec 25, 2025vs DET | 53 | 10 | 63 | 3 |
| Dec 21, 2025at NYG | 85 | 8 | 93 | 2 |
| Dec 14, 2025at DAL | 34 | 31 | 65 | 3 |
| Average · last 10 games | 63 | 13.9 | 76.9 | 2.3 |
REC YDS, RUSH+REC, REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, Aaron Jones has averaged 62.6 yards over his last 5 games and 65.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Aaron Jones’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- Aaron Jones’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- BUF
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- BUF allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 107.3 yards/game · 6th of 32
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Aaron Jones, answered here:
Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.
Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.