Nico Collins receiving yards projection vs the line
HOU · WR · #12
Next game at LAC · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 5 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 73.5 | 68.5 | +5.0 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 73.1 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 5.5 | −1.0 |
Recent receiving yards
74.9Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 68.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026vs NYG | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs JAX | 74 | 79 | 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026at TEN | 56 | 56 | 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs DAL | 118 | 118 | 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs BUF | 75 | 82 | 7 |
| Dec 27, 2025at LAC | 57 | 57 | 3 |
| Dec 21, 2025vs LV | 59 | 59 | 4 |
| Dec 14, 2025vs ARI | 85 | 85 | 3 |
| Dec 7, 2025at KC | 121 | 121 | 4 |
| Nov 30, 2025at IND | 98 | 105 | 5 |
| Average · last 10 games | 74.9 | 76.8 | 4.3 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Nico Collins has averaged 65.8 yards over his last 5 games, 65.8 yards per game this season (2026), and 57 yards across 1 game against LAC; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Nico Collins’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+5.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Nico Collins’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- LAC
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- LAC allowed the 21st-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 127.5 yards/game · 21st of 32
- Against LAC
- 57 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 68.5.
5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −114.
Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Nico Collins, answered here:
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