Woody Marks rushing yards projection vs the line
HOU · RB · #4
Next game at LAC · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 2 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 54.4 | 61.5 | −7.1 |
| Receiving Yards | 12.8 | 13.5 | −0.7 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 60.3 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 1.6 | 2.5 | −0.9 |
Recent rushing yards
42.0Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 61.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | RUSH YDS | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026vs NYG | 66 | 15 | 81 | 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs JAX | 56 | 25 | 81 | 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026at TEN | 62 | 23 | 85 | 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs DAL | 22 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| Sep 27, 2026at IND | 15 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs CIN | 8 | 27 | 35 | 5 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs BUF | 42 | -2 | 40 | 1 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs IND | 48 | 0 | 48 | 2 |
| Dec 27, 2025at LAC | 71 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Dec 14, 2025vs ARI | 30 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Average · last 10 games | 42 | 10.6 | 52.6 | 1.8 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections
26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
90 of 157 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Woody Marks has averaged 44.2 yards over his last 5 games, 38.7 yards per game this season (2026), and 71 yards across 1 game against LAC; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Woody Marks’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−7.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Woody Marks’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- LAC
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- LAC allowed the 24th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 84.8 yards/game · 24th of 32
- Against LAC
- 71 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample
Compare prices
Rushing Yards · line 61.5.
2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Woody Marks, answered here:
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