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Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 0.8 | No line yet | – |
| Passing Yards | 132.2 | No line yet | – |
Recent passing touchdowns
1.0Average passing touchdowns, last 10 (10 games)
Current through Nov 1
| Game | PASS TD | PASS YDS |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026vs ATL | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 25, 2026at CAR | 1 | 64 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs MIN | 1 | 217 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs CLE | 1 | 182 |
| Sep 13, 2026at CIN | 0 | 216 |
| Jan 3, 2026vs CAR | 1 | 203 |
| Dec 28, 2025at MIA | 2 | 346 |
| Dec 21, 2025at CAR | 1 | 145 |
| Dec 11, 2025vs ATL | 2 | 277 |
| Dec 7, 2025vs NO | 1 | 122 |
| Average · last 10 games | 1 | 177.2 |
PASS YDS: Early projection · no line posted yet
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, Baker Mayfield has averaged 0.6 over his last 5 games and 0.6 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Baker Mayfield’s passing touchdowns in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- Baker Mayfield’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- CHI
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- CHI allowed the 4th-most passing touchdowns to QBs in 2025 1.9/game · 4th of 32
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Baker Mayfield, answered here:
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