Brian Thomas Jr Projections
JAX · WR · #7
This week’s game has kicked off. The result lands in the game log
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Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 482 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 6 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 26.2 | 15.5 | +10.7 |
| Receptions | 2.0 | 1.5 | +0.5 |
Recent receiving yards
20.5Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 15.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 5 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026at BAL | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2026vs IND | 12 | 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs HOU | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs PHI | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 4, 2026at CIN | 17 | 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs NE | 8 | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026at DEN | 40 | 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs CLE | 40 | 3 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs TEN | 49 | 3 |
| Dec 28, 2025at IND | 39 | 4 |
| Average · last 10 games | 20.5 | 1.7 |
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 482 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 482 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Brian Thomas Jr has averaged 5.8 yards over his last 5 games, 14.6 yards per game this season (2026), and 0 yards across 1 game against BAL; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Nov 1, 2026): 7.4 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Brian Thomas Jr’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line. A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 482 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Brian Thomas Jr’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- BAL
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- BAL allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 169.6 yards/game · 2nd of 32
- Against BAL
- 0 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 15.5.
6 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −113.
Pre-game prices as of Nov 6, 9:13 AM ET. The game has started, so these are not live.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Brian Thomas Jr, answered here:
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