Sam LaPorta receiving yards projection vs the line

DET · TE · #87

Next game at MIA · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

50.1StatIQ projection · receiving yards

45.5Line · consensus

+4.6Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	50.1	45.5	+4.6
Rush + Rec Yards	48.2	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.4	3.5	+0.9

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

53.2Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 45.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Oct 20

Nov 2

Nov 9

Sep 13

Sep 17

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs MIN	33	35	3
Oct 25, 2026vs GB	18	18	1
Oct 11, 2026at ARI	88	88	5
Oct 4, 2026at CAR	84	84	8
Sep 27, 2026vs NYJ	44	44	3
Sep 17, 2026at BUF	52	52	6
Sep 13, 2026vs NO	48	48	5
Nov 9, 2025at WSH	53	53	5
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN	97	97	6
Oct 20, 2025vs TB	15	15	3
Average · last 10 games	53.2	53.4	4.5

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Sam LaPorta’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Sam LaPorta has averaged 53.4 yards over his last 5 games and 52.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+4.6 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Sam LaPorta’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DET vs MIA

Opponent: MIA
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: MIA allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 66.7 yards/game · 4th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Sam LaPorta

Receiving Yards · line 45.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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