Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards projection vs the line

DET · RB · #0

Next game at MIA · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

88.5StatIQ projection · rushing yards

98.5Line · consensus

−10.0Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 6 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	88.5	98.5	−10.0
Receiving Yards	40.1	32.5	+7.6
Rush + Rec Yards	139.6	134.5	+5.1
Receptions	4.8	3.5	+1.3

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

89.6Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 98.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Dec 25

Jan 4

156

Sep 13

Sep 17

Sep 27

Oct 4

151

Oct 11

116

Oct 25

153

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs MIN	153	15	168	2
Oct 25, 2026vs GB	116	27	143	5
Oct 11, 2026at ARI	151	56	207	5
Oct 4, 2026at CAR	46	31	77	4
Sep 27, 2026vs NYJ	99	65	164	7
Sep 17, 2026at BUF	52	61	113	6
Sep 13, 2026vs NO	156	30	186	5
Jan 4, 2026at CHI	80	33	113	3
Dec 25, 2025at MIN	41	23	64	2
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT	2	66	68	10
Average · last 10 games	89.6	40.7	130.3	4.9

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Jahmyr Gibbs’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 113 yards over his last 5 games and 110.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−10.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jahmyr Gibbs’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DET vs MIA

Opponent: MIA
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: MIA allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 107.2 yards/game · 7th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Jahmyr Gibbs

Rushing Yards · line 98.5.

6 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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