Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards projection vs the line
DET · WR · #14
Next game at MIA · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 5 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 89.1 | 75.5 | +13.6 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 85.9 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 7.5 | 6.5 | +0.9 |
Recent receiving yards
83.2Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 75.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026vs MIN | 46 | 56 | 7 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs GB | 153 | 152 | 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026at ARI | 69 | 69 | 6 |
| Oct 4, 2026at CAR | 75 | 75 | 8 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs NYJ | 19 | 19 | 4 |
| Sep 17, 2026at BUF | 142 | 142 | 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs NO | 67 | 67 | 10 |
| Jan 4, 2026at CHI | 139 | 139 | 11 |
| Dec 25, 2025at MIN | 68 | 68 | 8 |
| Dec 21, 2025vs PIT | 54 | 54 | 4 |
| Average · last 10 games | 83.2 | 84.1 | 7.6 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 72.4 yards over his last 5 games and 81.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+13.6 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- MIA
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- MIA allowed the 22nd-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 127.4 yards/game · 22nd of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 75.5.
5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −116 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Amon-Ra St. Brown, answered here:
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