Keaton Mitchell Projections

LAC · RB · #34

Next game at KC · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET

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Projections & lines

4 markets

RUSH+REC RUSH YDS REC YDS REC

Rush + Rec Yards · Week 6

at KC · Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET

Projection only

40.0Projection · rush + rec yards

37.5Line · consensus

+2.5Gap

Average · last 5 games 37.4

Average miss 27.7 yards · NFL rush + rec yards model · 45 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rush + Rec Yards	40.0	37.5	+2.5
Rushing Yards	31.9	18.5	+13.4
Receiving Yards	15.3	15.5	−0.2
Receptions	2.6	2.5	+0.1

Recent rush + rec yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

38.2Average rush + rec yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 37.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 7

Dec 14

Dec 21

Dec 27

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±27.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±27.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Keaton Mitchell rush + rec yards by game
Date	Opponent	RUSH+REC
Oct 11	vs DEN	29
Oct 4	@ SEA	63
Sep 27	@ BUF	47
Sep 20	vs LV	39
Sep 13	vs ARI	9
Jan 4	@ PIT · 2025	2
Dec 27	@ GB · 2025	38
Dec 21	vs NE · 2025	13
Dec 14	@ CIN · 2025	66
Dec 7	vs PIT · 2025	76

Keaton Mitchell’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of KC vs LAC

Opponent: KC
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: KC allowed the 26th-most scrimmage yards to RBs in 2025 110.8 yards/game · 26th of 32

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Rush + Rec Yards · Keaton Mitchell

Rush + Rec Yards · line 37.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 37.5	Under 37.5
FanDuelOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−113	−115Best
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−110Best	−120
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−110Best	−120
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−115	−125

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Keaton Mitchell

Questions to ask Explorer about Keaton Mitchell, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL rush + rec yards model · 45 graded projections

27.7 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Keaton Mitchell for 40 rush + rec yards against KC in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Keaton Mitchell has averaged 37.4 yards over his last 5 games and 37.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Keaton Mitchell’s rush + rec yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+2.5 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rush + rec yards projection and the actual result, over 45 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Keaton Mitchell’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's rush + rec yards projection for Keaton Mitchell vs KC?

StatIQ projects Keaton Mitchell for 40 yards rush + rec yards against KC in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Keaton Mitchell performed in rush + rec yards recently?

Keaton Mitchell has averaged 37.4 yards over his last 5 games and 37.4 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many rush + rec yards did Keaton Mitchell have in his last game?

Keaton Mitchell had 29 yards rush + rec yards in his most recent game vs DEN. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's rush + rec yards projections?

Across 45 completed rush + rec yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 27.7 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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