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Keaton Mitchell Projections

LAC · RB · #34

Next game at KC · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET

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Projections & lines

4 markets
RECRUSH YDSREC YDSRUSH+REC
Receptions · Week 6

at KC · Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET

Projection only
2.6Projection · receptions
2.5Line · consensus
+0.1Gap

Average · last 5 games 2.4

Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

MarketProjectionLineGap
Receptions2.62.5+0.1
Rushing Yards31.918.5+13.4
Receiving Yards15.315.5−0.2
Rush + Rec Yards40.037.5+2.5

Recent receptions

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

1.4Average receptions, last 10 (10 games)Over 2.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log
Keaton Mitchell receptions by game
DateOpponentREC
Oct 11vs DEN3
Oct 4@ SEA5
Sep 27@ BUF3
Sep 20vs LV1
Sep 13vs ARI0
Jan 4@ PIT · 20250
Dec 27@ GB · 20252
Dec 21vs NE · 20250
Dec 14@ CIN · 20250
Dec 7vs PIT · 20250

Keaton Mitchell’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of KC vs LAC
Opponent
KC
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
Availability
Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense
KC allowed the 21st-most receptions to RBs in 2025 3.9/game · 21st of 32

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Receptions · Keaton Mitchell

Receptions · line 2.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

BookOver 2.5Under 2.5
DraftKingsOct 16, 7:11 AM ET+134Best−172
FanDuelOct 16, 7:10 AM ET+116−154Best
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET+125−160
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:11 AM ET+125−160
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:10 AM ET+110−165

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Keaton Mitchell

Questions to ask Explorer about Keaton Mitchell, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL reception model · 146 graded projections

1.6average miss (mean absolute error)

74 of 146 within 1.5

01.520
74 of 146 landed within 1.5 (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Keaton Mitchell for 2.6 receptions against KC in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Keaton Mitchell has averaged 2.4 over his last 5 games and 2.4 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection
StatIQ’s single number for Keaton Mitchell’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line
The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap
Projection minus the line (+0.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss
The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual
Keaton Mitchell’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Keaton Mitchell vs KC?

StatIQ projects Keaton Mitchell for 2.6 receptions against KC in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Keaton Mitchell performed in receptions recently?

Keaton Mitchell has averaged 2.4 over his last 5 games and 2.4 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receptions did Keaton Mitchell have in his last game?

Keaton Mitchell had 3 receptions in his most recent game vs DEN. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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