Receiving Yards · Week 6
Projection only
15.3Projection · receiving yards
15.5Line · consensus
−0.2Gap
Average · last 5 games 10.4
Average miss 22.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections · Updated Oct 16
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Projections & lines
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 15.3 | 15.5 | −0.2 |
| Rushing Yards | 31.9 | 18.5 | +13.4 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 40.0 | 37.5 | +2.5 |
| Receptions | 2.6 | 2.5 | +0.1 |
Recent receiving yards
5.9Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 15.5 in 2 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not
Full game log
| Date | Opponent | REC YDS |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | vs DEN | 18 |
| Oct 4 | @ SEA | 24 |
| Sep 27 | @ BUF | -5 |
| Sep 20 | vs LV | 15 |
| Sep 13 | vs ARI | 0 |
| Jan 4 | @ PIT · 2025 | 0 |
| Dec 27 | @ GB · 2025 | 7 |
| Dec 21 | vs NE · 2025 | 0 |
| Dec 14 | @ CIN · 2025 | 0 |
| Dec 7 | vs PIT · 2025 | 0 |
This matchup
- Opponent
- KC
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- KC allowed the 20th-most receiving yards to RBs in 2025 27.8 yards/game · 20th of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 15.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.
| Book | Over 15.5 | Under 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −110Best | −114Best |
| FanDuelOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −114 | −114Best |
| Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −110Best | −120 |
| Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −110Best | −120 |
| Shown, never used as our price | ||
| FliffOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −120 | −120 |
Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.
Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.
About these books
Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Keaton Mitchell, answered here:
Model accuracy
NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections
22.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
90 of 145 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
StatIQ projects Keaton Mitchell for 15.3 receiving yards against KC in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Keaton Mitchell has averaged 10.4 yards over his last 5 games and 10.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Keaton Mitchell’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−0.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 145 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Keaton Mitchell’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
Common questions
What is StatIQ's receiving yards projection for Keaton Mitchell vs KC?
StatIQ projects Keaton Mitchell for 15.3 yards receiving yards against KC in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.
How has Keaton Mitchell performed in receiving yards recently?
Keaton Mitchell has averaged 10.4 yards over his last 5 games and 10.4 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.
How many receiving yards did Keaton Mitchell have in his last game?
Keaton Mitchell had 18 yards receiving yards in his most recent game vs DEN. The full game log on the page has the rest.
How accurate are StatIQ's receiving yards projections?
Across 145 completed receiving yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 22.8 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.
Next
The rest of KC vs LAC
235.0Projection · pass yds
164.3Projection · pass yds
113.0Projection · rush+rec
61.9Projection · rush+rec
43.0Projection · rec yds
42.8Projection · rec yds
30.8Projection · rec yds
27.1Projection · rush+rec