Jaylen Waddle receiving yards projection vs the line

DEN · WR · #17

Next game at CAR · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

51.4StatIQ projection · receiving yards

46.5Line · consensus

+4.9Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	51.4	46.5	+4.9
Rush + Rec Yards	52.9	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.2	4.5	−0.3

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

38.7Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 46.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Dec 28

Sep 14

138

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 15

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs KC	39	39	3
Oct 25, 2026at ARI	48	48	4
Oct 15, 2026vs SEA	24	24	4
Oct 11, 2026at LAC	19	28	2
Oct 4, 2026at SF	35	35	5
Sep 27, 2026vs LAR	10	24	2
Sep 20, 2026vs JAX	138	138	8
Sep 14, 2026at KC	2	2	1
Dec 28, 2025vs TB	0	7	0
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN	72	72	5
Average · last 10 games	38.7	41.7	3.4

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Jaylen Waddle’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jaylen Waddle has averaged 33 yards over his last 5 games, 39.4 yards per game this season (2026), and 110 yards across 1 game against CAR; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+4.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jaylen Waddle’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CAR vs DEN

Opponent: CAR
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CAR allowed the 25th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 124.6 yards/game · 25th of 32
Against CAR: 110 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Jaylen Waddle

Receiving Yards · line 46.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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