Courtland Sutton receiving yards projection vs the line
DEN · WR · #14
Next game at CAR · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 3 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 37.7 | 36.5 | +1.2 |
| Receptions | 3.2 | 3.5 | −0.3 |
Recent receiving yards
26.6Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 36.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026vs KC | 53 | 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026at ARI | 45 | 3 |
| Oct 15, 2026vs SEA | 19 | 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026at LAC | 18 | 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026at SF | 4 | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs LAR | 46 | 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs JAX | 25 | 3 |
| Sep 14, 2026at KC | 11 | 2 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs LAC | 5 | 1 |
| Dec 25, 2025at KC | 40 | 4 |
| Average · last 10 games | 26.6 | 2.5 |
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Courtland Sutton has averaged 27.8 yards over his last 5 games and 27.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+1.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Courtland Sutton’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- CAR
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- CAR allowed the 25th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 124.6 yards/game · 25th of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 36.5.
3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −117.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Courtland Sutton, answered here:
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