Austin Ekeler Projections

WAS · RB · #30

Next game at SF · Week 6 · Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET

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Projections & lines

3 markets

REC YDS RUSH+REC REC

Receiving Yards · Week 6

at SF · Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET

Projection only

18.8Projection · receiving yards

7.5Line · consensus

+11.3Gap

Average · last 4 games 16.0

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 272 graded projections · Updated Oct 19

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	18.8	7.5	+11.3
Rush + Rec Yards	30.8	31.5	−0.7
Receptions	1.7	1.5	+0.2

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

16.0Average receiving yards, last 4 (4 games)Over 7.5 in 3 of 4 · past results, not odds

Sep 7

Sep 11

Oct 4

Oct 11

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Austin Ekeler receiving yards by game
Date	Opponent	REC YDS
Oct 11	vs NYG	15
Oct 4	vs IND	11
Sep 11	@ GB · 2025	7
Sep 7	vs NYG · 2025	31

Austin Ekeler’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of SF vs WAS

Opponent: SF
Kickoff: Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: SF allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to RBs in 2025 35.7 yards/game · 7th of 32

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Receiving Yards · Austin Ekeler

Receiving Yards · line 7.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
DraftKingsOct 19, 9:54 AM ET	−107Best	−118
FanDuelOct 19, 9:54 AM ET	−113	−113Best
Hard Rock BetOct 19, 9:55 AM ET	−115	−115
Hardrockbet FlOct 19, 9:54 AM ET	−115	−115
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 19, 9:54 AM ET	−115	−125

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 19, 9:55 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Austin Ekeler

Questions to ask Explorer about Austin Ekeler, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL receiving-yard model · 272 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

177 of 272 within 25 yards

177 of 272 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Austin Ekeler for 18.8 receiving yards against SF in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Austin Ekeler has averaged 16 yards over his last 4 games and 13 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Oct 11, 2026): 16.8 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Austin Ekeler’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+11.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 272 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Austin Ekeler’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receiving yards projection for Austin Ekeler vs SF?

StatIQ projects Austin Ekeler for 18.8 yards receiving yards against SF in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Austin Ekeler performed in receiving yards recently?

Austin Ekeler has averaged 16 yards over his last 4 games and 13 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receiving yards did Austin Ekeler have in his last game?

Austin Ekeler had 15 yards receiving yards in his most recent game vs NYG. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receiving yards projections?

Across 272 completed receiving yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 21.8 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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