Drake Maye passing yards projection vs the line

NE · QB · #10

Next game vs GB · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

202.3StatIQ projection · passing yards

228.5Line · consensus

−26.2Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 1 book quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	202.3	228.5	−26.1
Rushing Yards	33.7	25.5	+8.2
Rush + Rec Yards	27.0	No line yet	–
Passing Touchdowns	1.5	1.5	0.0

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

243.0Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 228.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

256

Dec 28

191

Jan 4

178

Sep 9

208

Sep 20

199

Sep 27

269

Oct 4

374

Oct 11

235

Oct 18

321

Oct 22

199

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	RUSH YDS	RUSH+REC	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026at MIA	199	5	5	2
Oct 22, 2026at CHI	321	26	26	2
Oct 18, 2026vs NYJ	235	24	24	3
Oct 11, 2026vs LV	374	25	25	4
Oct 4, 2026at BUF	269	54	54	3
Sep 27, 2026at JAX	199	18	18	0
Sep 20, 2026vs PIT	208	17	17	0
Sep 9, 2026at SEA	178	47	47	1
Jan 4, 2026vs MIA	191	41	41	1
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ	256	22	22	5
Average · last 10 games	243	27.9	27.9	2.1

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: rushing yards

Drake Maye’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Drake Maye has averaged 279.6 yards over his last 5 games and 247.9 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Drake Maye’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−26.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Drake Maye’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of GB vs NE

Opponent: GB
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: GB allowed the 23rd-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 206.8 yards/game · 23rd of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Drake Maye

Passing Yards · line 228.5.

1 book has a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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