Darren Waller receiving yards projection vs the line
CAR · TE · #88
Next game vs DEN · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 4 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 25.6 | 18.5 | +7.0 |
| Receptions | 2.3 | 1.5 | +0.8 |
Recent receiving yards
31.5Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 18.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 29 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026at GB | 11 | 1 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs TB | 50 | 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026at PHI | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs DET | 36 | 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026at CLE | 51 | 5 |
| Sep 20, 2026at ATL | 33 | 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs CHI | 28 | 2 |
| Dec 28, 2025vs TB | 0 | 1 |
| Dec 21, 2025vs CIN | 40 | 3 |
| Dec 15, 2025at PIT | 66 | 7 |
| Average · last 10 games | 31.5 | 2.6 |
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Darren Waller has averaged 29.6 yards over his last 5 games and 29.9 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Darren Waller’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+7.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Darren Waller’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- DEN
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- DEN allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 59.7 yards/game · 10th of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 18.5.
4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Darren Waller, answered here:
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