Common questions

No. A projection is our estimate of a player’s next game. It does not tell you to take either side of a line.

A difference between two numbers. It is a reason to look at the player’s recent games and role, not a promise that the projection is right.

Five games is a small sample, and ordinary game-to-game spread can make a stretch of five look like a change when it is not.

How far past projections of this stat landed from the result, on average. It describes the past and is not a range for the next game.

It depends entirely on the stat and the role. A steady, high-volume player will have a much smaller average miss than a boom-or-bust one, so the only fair comparison is a projection against its own history in the same stat, never one stat against another.

No. Accuracy measures how close a projection lands to the real outcome; an edge means beating the price the market offers. The line already prices most public information, so a projection can be accurate and still offer no betting advantage. They are separate questions.

A single number. The projection is our best estimate of the most likely outcome. Its honest companion is not a range but the average miss: how far our projections land from the result, on average, across many graded games. That is a population-level accuracy figure, not a high/low band around any one player, and we do not publish a band we have not measured.

No. That is the single most common mistake. A near-line gap is usually noise, and a huge gap usually means the line is stale or you are missing information the market has. The projection-vs-line gap is a starting question, not an answer.

No. A model gives you a faster starting estimate, but the framework (range, recent role, matchup, then the line) works with public stats and a few minutes. The value is in doing your own reasoning, not in owning a model.

A bare pick (a verdict with no reasoning and no logged result) skips the part that makes you better, and you have no way to know whether it was skill or luck. A pick is a different thing when it arrives with the projection, the evidence, and an honest win-and-loss record attached: then it is something you can check, argue with, and learn from. The test is not "pick or no pick"; it is whether the reasoning is on the table.

Roughly speaking, a share around 25% or more usually marks a clear number-one receiving option, while a genuine focal point of an offense can push toward 30%. Context still matters: the same percentage means more on a pass-heavy team.

No. Target share is opportunity, not outcome. A receiver can command targets on short routes, face tight coverage, or see a low-volume game script and still fall short. It raises the floor of expectation; it does not promise a result.

Because a role changes more slowly than a box score. One long catch can inflate a yardage line without telling you anything repeatable, whereas how often a player is targeted reflects the offense’s actual plan for them, which tends to persist.

A prop bet, short for proposition bet, is a wager on a specific event within a game instead of the game’s winner, most often whether one player’s stat will go over or under a stated line.

The line is the number the stat must clear (over 24.5 points). The price is what a win pays (-110 means risking 110 to profit 100). The same line can carry different prices at different books.

It is the share of bets at a given price that must win for you to finish even over many bets: 52.38% at -110 and 40% at +150. It is a property of the price, not a prediction of any bet.

The margin a book builds into a market. Over -110 and under -110 imply 52.38% each, which sums to 104.76%; the extra 4.76% is the overround, a 4.55% hold.