Why is the last five games not enough?

Five games is a small sample, and ordinary game-to-game spread can make a stretch of five look like a change when it is not.

What does the band on the chart mean?

How far past projections of this stat landed from the result, on average. It describes the past and is not a range for the next game.

330.8Average passing yards, last 5 (5 games)

282

Sep 27

428

Oct 4

190

Oct 11

292

Oct 25

462

Nov 1

Bars: actual games. Dashed: our projection for the next game.

Three taps on the real page, then one real question.

Why?

Live: NFL passing yards, game of Nov 8