Is a projection a pick?

No. A projection is our estimate of a player’s next game. It does not tell you to take either side of a line.

What is the gap between the projection and the line?

A difference between two numbers. It is a reason to look at the player’s recent games and role, not a promise that the projection is right.

What the projection is, how big a gap matters, and what five games prove.

Joe Burrow

288.4Projection · passing yards

No line yetLine

The line is not posted yet; here is the projection.
The gap between the two numbers is where research starts.
There is no line yet, so there is no gap to size up.
The usual miss is the yardstick for every gap you see.
His last 5 games average 330.8; no typical miss is measured to judge that by.
A streak is a streak only when it leaves the usual miss.

Why?

Live: NFL passing yards, game of Nov 8