Guides /
What does a +2.5% return on 151 graded picks tell you?
1The rule: Focused test
The Focused test is a stricter selection of the same NFL props as the Broad test. Its rows are also in Broad.
Population: 2026 NFL season straight prop picks, graded on the public append-only record.
2The first read, Oct 24, 2026
Graded weeks 5 to 7 of the 2026 season.
+2.53%
Measured return
Focused test, 83–68–0, 151 graded, 54.97% hit. 2026 NFL season straight prop picks, graded on the public append-only record, read 2026-10-24
The bar, written before the read: a hit rate of at least 55% and a return of at least +2% on about 120 or more graded picks. The return met it; the hit rate, 54.97%, did not.
3The same rule today
The same rule, read again from the live record.
NFL forward test: behind so far. Focused 157–141 (−2.5% measured return); Broad 195–177 (−3.5%).
- Focused (our selections): 157–141 · 52.7% hit · −2.5% measured return (−7.47 units) · 298 graded, 34 pending
- Broad (control): 195–177 · 52.4% hit · −3.5% measured return (−13.18 units) · 372 graded, 42 pending
4The lesson
A return measured on about 150 picks can move by several points as the sample grows, which is why the bar was written before the read. A newly found edge is expected to return zero until forward evidence says otherwise.