Alvin Kamara rushing yards projection vs the line

NO · RB · #41

Next game vs CLE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

27.7StatIQ projection · rushing yards

26.5Line · consensus

+1.2Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	27.7	26.5	+1.2
Receiving Yards	23.5	17.5	+6.0
Rush + Rec Yards	49.6	46.5	+3.1
Receptions	3.1	3.5	−0.4

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

25.4Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 26.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Oct 26

Nov 2

Nov 9

Nov 23

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 5

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Oct 25, 2026vs PIT	5	57	62	7
Oct 18, 2026at NYG	34	35	69	2
Oct 11, 2026vs MIN	12	-6	6	2
Oct 5, 2026vs ATL	23	35	58	5
Sep 27, 2026vs LV	36	5	41	1
Sep 20, 2026at BAL	15	7	22	5
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL	11	4	15	2
Nov 9, 2025at CAR	83	32	115	3
Nov 2, 2025at LAR	14	3	17	1
Oct 26, 2025vs TB	21	24	45	2
Average · last 10 games	25.4	19.6	45	3

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Alvin Kamara’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Alvin Kamara has averaged 22 yards over his last 5 games and 20.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+1.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Alvin Kamara’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CLE vs NO

Opponent: CLE
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CLE allowed the 15th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 96.4 yards/game · 15th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Alvin Kamara

Rushing Yards · line 26.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −120.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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