Chris Olave receiving yards projection vs the line

NO · WR · #12

Next game vs CLE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

79.3StatIQ projection · receiving yards

72.5Line · consensus

+6.8Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 1 book quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	79.3	72.5	+6.8
Rush + Rec Yards	78.4	No line yet	–
Receptions	6.3	5.5	+0.8

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

98.8Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 72.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 14

148

Dec 21

119

Dec 28

182

Sep 13

Sep 20

107

Sep 27

116

Oct 5

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Oct 25, 2026vs PIT	56	56	6
Oct 18, 2026at NYG	43	43	4
Oct 11, 2026vs MIN	46	46	4
Oct 5, 2026vs ATL	116	116	8
Sep 27, 2026vs LV	107	107	9
Sep 20, 2026at BAL	86	86	8
Sep 13, 2026at DET	182	182	10
Dec 28, 2025at TEN	119	119	8
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ	148	148	10
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR	85	85	6
Average · last 10 games	98.8	98.8	7.3

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Chris Olave’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Chris Olave has averaged 73.6 yards over his last 5 games and 90.9 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Chris Olave’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+6.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Chris Olave’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CLE vs NO

Opponent: CLE
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CLE allowed the 32nd-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 109.5 yards/game · 32nd of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Chris Olave

Receiving Yards · line 72.5.

1 book has a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −113 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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