Tyler Allgeier rushing yards projection vs the line
ARI · RB · #22
Next game at SEA · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 4 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 45.8 | 47.5 | −1.7 |
| Receiving Yards | 14.9 | 17.5 | −2.6 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 75.1 | 70.5 | +4.6 |
| Receptions | 2.3 | 2.5 | −0.2 |
Recent rushing yards
36.2Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 47.5 in 2 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | RUSH YDS | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at DAL | 147 | 44 | 191 | 5 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs DEN | 19 | 30 | 49 | 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026at LAR | 38 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs DET | 7 | 9 | 16 | 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026at NYG | 42 | 7 | 49 | 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026at SF | -1 | 10 | 9 | 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs SEA | 10 | 9 | 19 | 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026at LAC | 61 | 9 | 70 | 2 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs NO | 16 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Dec 29, 2025vs LAR | 23 | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| Average · last 10 games | 36.2 | 13.1 | 49.3 | 2.2 |
Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections
26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
90 of 157 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Tyler Allgeier has averaged 50.6 yards over his last 5 games, 40.4 yards per game this season (2026), and 22 yards across 2 games against SEA; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−1.7 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Tyler Allgeier’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- SEA
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- SEA allowed the 30th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 72.9 yards/game · 30th of 32
- Against SEA
- 22 yards a game 2 previous meetings · small sample
Compare prices
Rushing Yards · line 47.5.
4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Tyler Allgeier, answered here:
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