Trey McBride receiving yards projection vs the line

ARI · TE · #85

Next game at SEA · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

56.1StatIQ projection · receiving yards

59.5Line · consensus

−3.4Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	56.1	59.5	−3.4
Rush + Rec Yards	56.7	No line yet	–
Receptions	6.3	6.5	−0.2

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

68.5Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 59.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

111

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at DAL	72	72	7
Oct 25, 2026vs DEN	111	111	10
Oct 18, 2026at LAR	53	53	7
Oct 11, 2026vs DET	66	66	9
Oct 4, 2026at NYG	31	31	7
Sep 27, 2026at SF	75	75	9
Sep 20, 2026vs SEA	41	41	8
Sep 13, 2026at LAC	95	95	9
Jan 4, 2026at LAR	65	65	7
Dec 28, 2025at CIN	76	76	10
Average · last 10 games	68.5	68.5	8.3

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Trey McBride’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Trey McBride has averaged 66.6 yards over his last 5 games, 68 yards per game this season (2026), and 73.3 yards across 3 games against SEA; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Trey McBride’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−3.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Trey McBride’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ARI vs SEA

Opponent: SEA
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: SEA allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 63.2 yards/game · 6th of 32
Against SEA: 73.3 yards a game 3 previous meetings

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Trey McBride

Receiving Yards · line 59.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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