Receptions · Week 6
Projection only
1.8Projection · receptions
1.5Line · consensus
+0.3Gap
Average · last 5 games 0.8
Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 17
Compare
Follows are saved on this device.
Projections & lines
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 1.8 | 1.5 | +0.3 |
| Receiving Yards | 20.3 | 12.5 | +7.8 |
Recent receptions
1.3Average receptions, last 10 (10 games)Over 1.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not
Full game log
| Date | Opponent | REC |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | vs CLE | 2 |
| Jan 4 | vs TEN · 2025 | 1 |
| Dec 28 | @ IND · 2025 | 0 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEN · 2025 | 1 |
| Dec 14 | vs NYJ · 2025 | 0 |
| Dec 7 | vs IND · 2025 | 5 |
| Nov 30 | @ TEN · 2025 | 1 |
| Nov 23 | @ ARI · 2025 | 0 |
| Nov 16 | vs LAC · 2025 | 3 |
| Nov 9 | @ HOU · 2025 | 0 |
This matchup
- Opponent
- NE
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- NE allowed the 24th-most receptions to WRs in 2025 9.9/game · 24th of 32
Compare prices
Receptions · line 1.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.
| Book | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuelOct 17, 11:10 AM ET | +102Best | −136 |
| Hard Rock BetOct 17, 11:10 AM ET | +100 | −130Best |
| Hardrockbet FlOct 17, 11:10 AM ET | +100 | −130Best |
| Shown, never used as our price | ||
| FliffOct 17, 11:10 AM ET | −110 | −130 |
Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.
Prices as of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET.
About these books
Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Tim Patrick, answered here:
Model accuracy
NFL reception model · 146 graded projections
1.6average miss (mean absolute error)
74 of 146 within 1.5
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
StatIQ projects Tim Patrick for 1.8 receptions against NE in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Tim Patrick has averaged 0.8 over his last 5 games and 2 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Oct 11, 2026): 1.8. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Tim Patrick’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+0.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Tim Patrick’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
Common questions
What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Tim Patrick vs NE?
StatIQ projects Tim Patrick for 1.8 receptions against NE in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.
How has Tim Patrick performed in receptions recently?
Tim Patrick has averaged 0.8 over his last 5 games and 2 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.
How many receptions did Tim Patrick have in his last game?
Tim Patrick had 2 receptions in his most recent game vs CLE. The full game log on the page has the rest.
How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?
Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.
Next
The rest of NE vs NYJ
254.3Projection · pass yds
191.6Projection · pass yds
83.3Projection · rush+rec
72.7Projection · rush+rec
62.3Projection · rec yds
61.9Projection · rec yds
43.0Projection · rec yds
37.0Projection · rec yds