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A.J. Brown Projections

NE · WR · #1

Next game vs NYJ · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

2 markets
REC YDSREC
Receiving Yards · Week 6

vs NYJ · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only
62.3Projection · receiving yards
50.5Line · consensus
+11.8Gap

Average · last 5 games 66.0

Average miss 22.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections · Updated Oct 17

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

MarketProjectionLineGap
Receiving Yards62.350.5+11.8
Receptions4.43.5+0.9

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

75.5Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 50.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±22.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±22.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Sep 9 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log
A.J. Brown receiving yards by game
DateOpponentREC YDS
Sep 9@ SEA26
Dec 28@ BUF · 202568
Dec 20@ WSH · 202595
Dec 14vs LV · 202541
Dec 8@ LAC · 2025100
Nov 28vs CHI · 2025132
Nov 23@ DAL · 2025110
Nov 16vs DET · 202549
Nov 10@ GB · 202513
Oct 19@ MIN · 2025121

A.J. Brown’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of NE vs NYJ
Opponent
NYJ
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability
Questionable at publish, from the availability check; StatIQ does not show NFL injury reports yet
Opponent defense
NYJ allowed the 18th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 136.1 yards/game · 18th of 32

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Receiving Yards · A.J. Brown

Receiving Yards · line 50.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

BookOver 50.5Under 50.5
FanDuelOct 17, 11:10 AM ET−114Best−114Best
Hard Rock BetOct 17, 11:10 AM ET−115−115
Hardrockbet FlOct 17, 11:10 AM ET−115−115
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 17, 11:10 AM ET−120−125

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 17, 11:10 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about A.J. Brown

Questions to ask Explorer about A.J. Brown, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections

22.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 145 within 25 yards

0 yards25100 yards
90 of 145 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects A.J. Brown for 62.3 receiving yards against NYJ in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, A.J. Brown has averaged 66 yards over his last 5 games and 26 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection
StatIQ’s single number for A.J. Brown’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line
The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap
Projection minus the line (+11.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss
The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 145 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual
A.J. Brown’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receiving yards projection for A.J. Brown vs NYJ?

StatIQ projects A.J. Brown for 62.3 yards receiving yards against NYJ in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has A.J. Brown performed in receiving yards recently?

A.J. Brown has averaged 66 yards over his last 5 games and 26 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receiving yards did A.J. Brown have in his last game?

A.J. Brown had 26 yards receiving yards in his most recent game vs SEA. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receiving yards projections?

Across 145 completed receiving yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 22.8 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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