Saquon Barkley rushing yards projection vs the line

PHI · RB · #26

Next game vs NYG · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

47.2StatIQ projection · rushing yards

58.5Line · consensus

−11.3Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 6 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	47.2	58.5	−11.3
Rush + Rec Yards	64.2	74.5	−10.3

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

67.4Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 58.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

122

Dec 8

Dec 14

132

Dec 20

Dec 28

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 28

Oct 4

Oct 26

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	RUSH+REC
Nov 1, 2026at WSH	30	54
Oct 26, 2026vs DAL	62	71
Oct 4, 2026vs LAR	8	10
Sep 28, 2026at CHI	82	80
Sep 20, 2026at TEN	9	20
Sep 13, 2026vs WSH	83	80
Dec 28, 2025at BUF	68	68
Dec 20, 2025at WSH	132	132
Dec 14, 2025vs LV	78	92
Dec 8, 2025at LAC	122	122
Average · last 10 games	67.4	72.9

Saquon Barkley’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Saquon Barkley has averaged 38.2 yards over his last 5 games, 45.7 yards per game this season (2026), and 104 yards across 2 games against NYG; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−11.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Saquon Barkley’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of NYG vs PHI

Opponent: NYG
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NYG allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 116.5 yards/game · 2nd of 32
Against NYG: 104 yards a game 2 previous meetings · small sample

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Saquon Barkley

Rushing Yards · line 58.5.

6 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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