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Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 54.0 | No line yet | – |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 56.4 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 4.3 | No line yet | – |
Recent receiving yards
56.4Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)
Current through Oct 18
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026vs CAR | 75 | 75 | 7 |
| Sep 28, 2026at CHI | 65 | 65 | 6 |
| Sep 20, 2026at TEN | 117 | 117 | 10 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs WSH | 53 | 53 | 3 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs WSH | 52 | 52 | 3 |
| Dec 28, 2025at BUF | 25 | 25 | 2 |
| Dec 20, 2025at WSH | 42 | 42 | 6 |
| Dec 14, 2025vs LV | 50 | 50 | 2 |
| Dec 8, 2025at LAC | 37 | 37 | 4 |
| Nov 28, 2025vs CHI | 48 | 48 | 5 |
| Average · last 10 games | 56.4 | 56.4 | 4.8 |
RUSH+REC, REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, DeVonta Smith has averaged 72.4 yards over his last 5 games, 77.5 yards per game this season (2026), and 66.5 yards across 2 games against NYG; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- DeVonta Smith’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- NYG
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- NYG allowed the 9th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 151.8 yards/game · 9th of 32
- Against NYG
- 66.5 yards a game 2 previous meetings · small sample
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about DeVonta Smith, answered here:
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