StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Joe Burrow Projections

CIN · QB · #9
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs JAX
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
PASS TDPASS YDS
2.2passing touchdowns projected vs JAX
Season average 2 · Last five 2.2
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 1 of the result
Recent passing touchdowns
012331TB2HOU3PITStatIQ projection 2.2
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentPASS TD
Sep 27, 2026@ @ PIT3
Sep 20, 2026@ @ HOU2
Sep 13, 2026vs vs TB1
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Joe Burrow
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How has Joe Burrow done against JAX?1 per game1 game vs JAXExplore this question

Projection context: Joe Burrow, 2.2 passing touchdowns

StatIQ projects Joe Burrow for 2.2 passing touchdowns against JAX in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Joe Burrow has averaged 2.2 over his last 5 games, 2 per game this season (2026), and 1 across 1 game against JAX. That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Joe Burrow’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Passing Touchdowns track record
1
average projection miss
91 completed passing touchdowns projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
JAX
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
2.2 over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's passing touchdowns projection for Joe Burrow vs JAX?

StatIQ projects Joe Burrow for 2.2 passing touchdowns against JAX in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Joe Burrow performed in passing touchdowns recently?

Joe Burrow has averaged 2.2 over his last 5 games, 2 per game this season (2026), and 1 across 1 game against JAX. That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing touchdowns projections?

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

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